the numbers don't lie ... usually

So today in my Humanities class (bleh) we discussed Ibsen's A Doll's House and then branched into a wider-ranging discussion of gender roles, what a healthy relationship means, etc. Somewhere along the lines, somebody cited (of course) the idea of a rising divorce rate, the "fact" that half of all marriages end in divorce, etc. (scary statistics for all of us). These sorts of sentiments seem to be standard rhetoric these days.

But says who? I stumbled across this post from the Freakonomics blog (hosted by the NY Times) that seems to indicate that the person responsible for circulating the latest round of divorce statistics apparently goofed up some of her numbers. A lot.

According to the post, in contrast to what we normally tell ourselves,

the divorce rate in the United States is currently at its lowest level in twenty-five years, and has fallen nearly every year since 1979. ... The number of divorces per thousand marriages has now fallen by 27 percent since the peak in 1979. The latest data suggest that the divorce rate for 2007 will be even lower still. And our own analysis of the stability of marriages suggests that those married in the 1990’s appear to be less likely to divorce than those married in the 1980’s, who in turn are less likely to divorce than those married in the 1970’s. As such, the divorce rate seems likely to continue to decline for some time yet. ... Whichever way you look at it, the relevant statistic [for the divorce rate] is surely closer to 33 percent than 43 percent.

Woah! From a half to a third? Why do we still circulate these old numbers? I guess it just goes to show how powerful statistics seem to be to most of us--rarely do we actually sit back and ask ourselves how valid these numbers actually are.

In any case, it's good news, right?


______________


Also, a P.S. after another article that cites the author(s) of the first:

• The divorce rate for college graduates in recent years has been plummeting, dropping far more rapidly than for those without a college degree. Only about 16 percent of college graduates married between 1990 to 1994 have gotten a divorce within their first 10 years of marriage.

• If the couple has an annual income of over $50,000 a year, the divorce rate during the first 10 years of marriage declines substantially. Couples without much money have a lot more strains on their marriages.

• Religious people are a bit less likely to divorce.

So go to church, go to school, and be rich, I guess.